October 591A
My 321st post on The War
Today’s Image
Meet Israeli pop singer, Yuval Raphael. Here you can see her during her recent performance in the Eurovision finals held last Saturday evening in Basel, Switzerland. Yuval is a survivor of the October 7, 2023 Palestinian massacre of Israelis and some foreign workers. She survived by hiding beneath dead bodies for hours while Palestinians tortured, dismembered, set on fire, raped and killed other attendees of the Nova Music Festival. She survived.
As you may recall from my post of last year, the Eurovision competition is a contest between selected performers across Europe and neighboring countries who sing a single song in a live performance. Each performer is chosen by the national, typically government run, media outlet. In Israel’s case that is the Kan TV network who chose her and the song “New Day Will Rise”. You can see/hear her perform, live, in her semi-final performance here.
She came in second place after Austria’s entry - “Wasted Love” performed by JJ. You can see/hear a version of the winning entry here.
One of the purposes of the Eurovision Contest is to form a basis, common ground, amongst nations void of politics. You can read more at their official web site here. BUT, this competition is all about politics. There were efforts by country leaders, former performers and more to remove Israel in advance of the competition. There were loud pro-Hamas demonstrations outside the venue. There were attempts to storm the stage and disrupt Yuval during here rehearsals and even her live performance. And it doesn’t stop there. In the case of Spain, one of the main sponsors of the competition, they aired pro-Hamas commercials, paid for by the government, during the commercial breaks. So much for being apolitical. Now the Prime Ministers of Spain and Ireland are demanding that Israel be permanently removed from competing in the future due to their pro-Hamas positions.
The performers are judged by a complex combination of “professional, apolitical judges” from each country along with the general population. Those interested in voting download an application to their smartphones, send an SMS or phone call in their votes. Five countries are guaranteed that their entries reach the finals - France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK - because they make the largest financial contributions to the organization. For the finals there are two sets of voting entities - a set of 5 judges and the general population - from each country competing in the contest. You cannot vote for your own country’s entry. When you cast your vote, you pick your 10 favorite songs from the final competition of 26 countries. You can assign 12 points to your top pick, 10 points to your second and 1 point each to the other eight.
Here you can see the voting as it unfolded for Yuval:
Sometimes countries collude with one another to “vote up” their entries. From this chart you can see that the voting public voted overwhelmingly for Yuval as their top pick with many countries almost unanimously voting her as their top pick, including Spain. But the juries are packed with judges from each country’s government sponsored media outlet. And nearly all of them are pro-Hamas, anti-Israel. For example, in Norway the public voted almost unanimously in favor of Yuval while she did not receive a single vote from their government sponsored judges. This is also true for Australia, Belgium, Switzerland, Spain, UK, Portugal, Sweden and Czech Republic.
My View - President Trump’s Middle East Visit
or “Let’s Make a Deal” or “The Return of RealPolitik”
I refrained from posting about President Trump’s visit before the trip because there were just too many rumors and unknowns about what to expect. There were rumors that he was going to endorse a Palestinian State, he was going to meet with PA President Abbas, that he was going to announce a civilian nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia and much more. The only rumor which actually materialized was his impromptu meeting with the new leader of Syria, President Ahmed al-Sharaa.
Some pundits, including some in Israel, argued that Trump bypassed Israel as an intentional affront to Prime Minister Netanyahu. I do not view it this way. The Trump Administration has prioritized doing what it can to restore the pre-eminence of the USA as the global power, economically and militarily. So striking major business deals across the oil rich Gulf States made a lot of sense. While Israel does invest in the USA, its capacity to providing capital pails in comparison to the investment capacity of the three Gulf States Trump visited - Saudi Arabia, Qatar and United Arab Emirates. So I see no real slight in not visiting Israel. Netanyahu was the first foreign leader invited to visit the White House after Trump’s inauguration and the two leaders hold regular phone conversations.
Likewise, neither Egypt nor Jordan were on his itinerary. Both those countries receive massive aid from the USA, are fiscal basket cases and complain non stop about not getting enough from the USA. Egypt has little to no chance of paying back of the massive loans it is receiving from the IMF or World Bank and has no way to feed its rapidly growing population of more than 100 million people.
In my view, there were two main themes that emerged from Trump’s visit. Everyone is talking about the mega-deals he landed for the benefit of the USA. Not just the arms sales which will benefit US defense contractors but he received commitments from the leaders of these countries to invest massive amounts of their sovereign wealth funds into the US economy. Luckily, there are laws restricting how much a foreign country can invest in a US firm, otherwise there would be a chance that the USA could lose control over some of its key industries. But more than that, commitments were made to support efforts by Saudi Arabia and the UAE to built infrastructure for Artificial Intelligence through large sales commitments to Nvidia and other companies. Investing in Data Centers with state of the art AI infrastructure will not make these countries centers of AI research and leaders in the field. That takes an excellent educational infrastructure and an entrepreneurial population, neither of which really exist there.
I will comment on the Qatari gift of the luxury Boeing 747 to President Trump later.
But, what I see as the most significant outcome of Trump’s visit is the return to the era of former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s “REAL POLITIK”. When you read Kissinger’s books you understand that his view is not one to make America’s role to cookie cut the USA’s values and system of governance around the world, but to deal with the realities that nations have different systems of governance, including dictatorships, benevolent dictatorships, pseudo-democracies, etc. In his view it is a mistake to try and cast the world into the mold that fits most Western countries, first and foremost the USA. Instead, he saw his role to deal with these countries in a way that created stability for the world. That being said, there was considerable meddling going in the affairs of other countries during Kissinger’s term of office, including Chile, Iran and others. He cast those within the context of the Cold War.
But, after the presidencies of Nixon and Gerald Ford, the USA had a succession of US Presidents who asserted their advocacy of the US model for governance in other parts of the world. This started with President Carter’s view on human rights and his insistence that US allies be evaluated on those rights. That policy, among many other factors, led to the downfall of the Shah of Iran during his term. President GW Bush took this concept to an extreme by attacking Iraq on the pretext that they were developing weapons of mass destruction but then on trying to install a democratic form of government there. Then President Obama came to office, made his first foreign trip a trip to Cairo where he gave a speech that launched the so called Arab Spring. That Arab Spring soon became a cold winter, with violent uprisings leading to chaos throughout much of the Middle East. And then President Biden lecturing Saudi Arabia and the UAE regarding their mini war with the Houthis in Yemen, that launched missile attacks against both countries, successfully destroying a major oil refinery. Biden forced them to stop their war and gave both countries the “cold shoulder”.
So in comes President Trump to Saudi Arabia and in a major policy speech he says, among other things,
It’s crucial for the wider world to know this great transformation [in the Middle East] has not come from Western interventionists, or flying people in beautiful planes giving you lectures on how to live and how to govern your own affairs. In the end, the so-called nation builders wrecked far more nations than they built and the interventionists were intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand themselves. The gleaming marvels of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi were not created by the so-called ‘nation builders’, ’ neocons’, or ‘liberal non-profits’. Instead, the birth of a modern Middle East has been brought by the people of the region themselves — the people that are right here, the people [who] have lived here all their lives, developing your own sovereign countries, pursuing your own unique visions and charting your own destinies in your own way. You achieved a modern miracle the Arabian way.
I am not one to praise many of the speeches delivered by President Trump. I find most of what he says unsettling. However, whoever wrote this speech for him deserves a great deal of credit. It is my view that the comments I quote above indicate a very substantial shift in US foreign policy. A policy based on Realpolitik. We will not hear Trump demanding from Qatar, Saudi Arabia or UAE elections, progress on human rights, etc. But, in fact, Saudi Arabia and UAE are dramatically changing their societies granting the population more and more liberal rights. Those of you that have been following me know that I have written previously about how Saudi Arabia has changed its school curriculum where now they teach about WW2 and the holocaust. They no longer teach that Jews are vermin, unlike what is taught in the Palestinian Authority curriculum or even that of Egypt. If you want to move your population into the 21st century and overhaul your economy by reducing dependence on oil revenue it helps to have stability in the region. And you do not achieve stability by preaching war against your neighbors. I mention all this because I find that the significance of Trump’s comments are being neglected by much of the Israeli and US media.
Of course, the mega deals that were announced could have profound and positive impact on the US economy. It remains to be seen how many of them will materialize. Recently, the price of oil has declined. Crude oil now sits at $62 a barrel. It has been hovering between $70 to $80 for much of the past year. I read that when the price falls below $70 Saudi Arabia must borrow against its sovereign wealth fund to subsidize its budget. So, perhaps, some of those promises of major investments may never materialize. But some will.
The arms sales to the three countries that Trump visited are a bit problematic for Israel. Ever since the ‘80s, Israel has enjoyed a qualitative edge in its arms purchases from the USA. That means that by law instated by Congress, Israel is to be assured of a qualitative superiority in arms to any of its neighbors in the Middle East. For Israel this has been most significant in the jet aircraft it purchases. This law was largely instituted when Israel gave up its own effort to produce its own fighter jet, the Lavi, back in the 1980s. The USA was upset that it would compete with its own F-15 fighter jets. For a combination of reasons, including pressure from the USA, Israel abandoned that program but insisted that it be allowed to install much of its own electronics into the US fighter jets that it purchased. This worked fine until the F-35 program. Israel cannot install its own electronics into these aircraft. So if the USA sells these to Saudi Arabia or, perhaps more worrisome, to Turkiye it is a problem for Israel. It is my view that Israel has little chance in stopping the sales of these aircraft to its neighbors. However, it should insist on a return to Israel’s ability to make its own modifications/improvements to the aircraft it purchases so it can maintain its qualitative edge. But we will have to wait and see.
Politically, the Trump trip was as important as what happened as what did not happen. There was no expansion of the Abraham Accords. That is a major disappointment to all the parties involved. However, Israel can hardly afford to stop its offensive against Hamas at this time nor give serious consideration to a Palestinian State anytime in the near future. While at the same time it would be hard for Saudi Arabia to agree to move forward with the Abraham Accords under the current circumstances. Both countries can afford to wait a bit longer and hopefully an agreement will materialize later during Trump’s term of office. On the other hand, what did happen was an agreement by the USA to release “some” of the financial restrictions on Syria. Here in Israel that announcement was met with split views. Many in this current government were upset with awarding a former ISIS leader recognition and financial benefits. Others view this with cautious optimism and a good thing for Israel. I fall into the latter camp. The USA has not extended full recognition of the new Syrian Government. Moreover, many of the financial restrictions that will enable true foreign investment remain in place. But now the USA will have a vote and influence on what happens in Syria going forward. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with his Syrian counterpart and laid out a list of what it would take for the USA to release all the financial restrictions and recognize the state. Among items on that list are: going after ISIS, eliminating foreign extremists from government positions, eventually joining the Abraham Accords, helping locate/destroy chemical weapons facilities, respecting the rights of the minorities including Kurds, Druze and Alawites and more. It is a long list and a good list. Nothing prevents Israel from maintaining its current positions in Syria. In fact, it is becoming quite clear that Israel is able to launch very secret reconnaissance missions within Syria including accessing facilities near the Presidential Palace in Damascus (more on that later). In fact, representatives from Israel have been meeting with Turkish and Syrian representatives in Azerbaijan to discuss how the three parties can avoid clashes. Having a channel of communications with the three parties will become very important over time. But what Israel gains by the stability of Syria is a long term block against Iranian and Hezbollah influence on a neighbor. All the money and effort invested by Iran in creating a channel for arming Hezbollah to fight Israel for Syria is gone for the time being. And helping to stabilize Syria in its current form will help in extending that period.
Prior to Trump’s trip to the Gulf the US Administration came to a verbal agreement with the Houthis that they would stop attacking commercial and military ships in the Gulf and Red Sea areas in return for the USA ceasing its military operations in Yemen. Some in Israel have criticized this agreement as it did nothing to stop the Houthis from firing missiles and drones against Israel. I view it differently. First, there is criticism that the agreement was reached without Israel being informed. That is true, but the UK was also not informed and they were participating with the US forces in striking the Houthis. So this was not a slight, but just negligence in keeping allies updated. Secondly, the USA needs to act first and foremost in its own interests. It was not likely that it could convince the Houthis to stop their actions against Israel. The USA is interested first and foremost in keeping the international shipping lanes open and free. So the deal makes sense. And nothing in their agreement prohibits Israel from taking its own independent actions. To this point, not long after the agreement was reached the Houthis fired a missile that landed not far from Israel’s main airport. This caused the cancellation of many flights, including my return flight from the USA. Within two days the IDF attacked and destroyed both the main airport in Yemen servicing the Houthis as well as their main port.
My View - Qatar
You may have noticed that I have written a lot about Saudi Arabia and UAE, but not much about Qatar. This is because Qatar is a different beast. Qatar is a country sitting on a mother lode of oil/natural gas wealth with a population of less than 250,000 people. The country possesses enormous wealth. And its government is a major supporter of islamic extremists groups all over the world including: Al-Qaeda, Taliban, ISIS, Hamas, Moslem Brotherhood, etc. It also supplies a great deal of money to governments, education institutions, lobbyists, etc. It has no inhibition when it comes to buying influence wherever it can to support these extremists. But the USA has a major air base located outside Qatar’s capital, Doha, called Al Udeid Air Base. It was established shortly after the 1991 war against Saddam Huseein’s Iraq after the renegade leader invaded nearby Kuwait. It houses the US’s Central Command from where operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, Houthis, etc. are planned and launched. While Hamas may have been trained by Iran’s Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC its funding largely came from Qatar. Qatar pretends to be an intermediary in the hostage negotiations, but it is not. If it demanded today that Hamas release all the hostages, Hamas would have no choice. It was Qatar that demanded the release of Idan Alexander the US-Israeli hostage. Qatar gave French President Macron $2B about 6 months ago. Since then Macron has been on a warpath, criticizing Israel every chance he can. The Knesset announced this week that it will be discussing a bill designed to declare Qatar a state supporter of terror. I do not think it will progress too far as long as the hostages remain inside Gaza. Moreover, in its own Qatar influence buying fiasco, members of the Prime Minister’s Office were found to be taking bribes (sorry payments) from Qatar.
Qatar sees nothing wrong in outright buying influence using its sovereign wealth fund derived from its oil revenues. From their view there is absolutely nothing wrong in giving a luxurious Boeing 747 as a gift to President Trump, deceptively claiming that it is a gift to the US government. [The reality is that the plane has been sitting unused for years since it is not being used by the Qatar royal family. Apparently its fuel bill is too high.] Qatar has been buying influence at many of the major universities around the world, not just the ivy leagues in the USA but also Oxford and Cambridge. Its state sponsored TV station routinely incites Muslim Fundamentalists across the Middle East and Asia. Its distorted reporting caused the Palestinian Authority to recently kick the news outlet out of Ramallah. All of Hamas’ leadership lives in Qatar, hosted by the country in lavish five star hotels. It was sending Hamas suitcases filled with US dollars, at least $5B since 2012. You can read much more about this subject here:
From the Wall Street Journal entitled “How Qatar Spent Billions to Gain Influence in the U.S.”.
Here is a UK parliamentary report “Qatari Support for Al Qaeda in Syria”,
And here you can find minutes from the US House of Representatives Subcommittee on The Middle East and North Africa hearing on relations with Qatar in which the testimony documents the inconsistencies in the relationship, Qatar’s methods for funding terrorist organizations and the difficulties the country has with its neighbors. It is dated 2017.
From National Review “Why Does Qatar Keep Helping Terrorists?”
Right now everyone is focused on the Boeing 747 that Qatar gifted to President Trump. But, that is nothing compared to what is really going on.
Casualties
Just today the IDF reported that Sgt. Yosef Yehuda Chirak - 22 (Z’’L) was killed in combat in northern Gaza. He was part of the IDF’s engineering corp. That was the first casualty reported in two weeks.
Rockets & Missiles & Drones
Since my last post Hamas has fired about 5 rockets in two different barrages. The most recent consisted of two rockets fired at Kissufim from Khan Younis. One of the rockets was intercepted and the other landed in an open area.
The Houthis have fired at least seven ballistic missiles since my last post. Three fell short and landed somewhere in Saudi Arabia. The others were successfully intercepted outside Israeli airspace. Sirens went off in Israel but there was no damage or injury reported.
So look forward to these posts. They are nuanced, insightful, and synthesize what is happening with israel and its neighbors and the War